Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 13.982986 15.823114 17.920030 20.509660 23.654383 27.392450 32.238110
2025-05-18 11.429951 13.674615 16.448687 20.203681 25.275856 32.081949 42.266340
2025-05-25 9.964067 12.351596 15.462242 19.943520 26.474053 36.075894 52.213582
2025-06-01 8.986751 11.450771 14.797251 19.868225 27.745445 40.297716 63.813626
2025-06-08 8.096955 10.531016 13.942179 19.317369 28.103303 43.068458 73.896078
2025-06-15 7.519431 9.968650 13.503861 19.287725 29.228157 47.351218 88.692240
2025-06-22 6.825490 9.165229 12.610361 18.394074 28.690530 48.408992 97.004228
2025-06-29 6.215012 8.430861 11.745984 17.428921 27.843700 48.632989 103.454163
2025-07-06 5.759024 7.891267 11.132217 16.805822 27.515630 49.837604 113.167128
2025-07-13 5.882412 8.238036 11.944653 18.743837 32.474683 64.176239 172.410543
2025-07-20 5.735746 8.148000 12.031513 19.383186 34.942129 73.634634 226.579215
2025-07-27 5.391976 7.717637 11.507571 18.804959 34.651551 75.750152 253.152928
2025-08-03 5.239438 7.599186 11.528118 19.326179 37.071889 86.870902 343.393096
2025-08-10 4.975841 7.280303 11.172408 19.057110 37.587749 92.592682 417.359743
2025-08-17 4.741895 6.994880 10.851356 18.816825 38.127232 98.723771 512.430101
2025-08-24 4.552720 6.772646 10.625692 18.747426 39.098224 106.975623 657.790041
2025-08-31 4.321399 6.464384 10.218294 18.239308 38.793301 110.322050 771.302445
2025-09-07 4.170074 6.285785 10.039208 18.211951 39.826157 119.805114 1026.392633
2025-09-14 3.931796 5.943019 9.527548 17.386613 38.415279 118.053279 1098.928952
2025-09-21 3.700845 5.603613 9.004652 16.493839 36.681075 114.271374 1123.760699
2025-09-28 3.522089 5.349295 8.632028 15.916671 35.812912 114.354224 1247.003374
2025-10-05 3.624325 5.598803 9.248863 17.709786 42.648437 158.403796 3762.834478
2025-10-12 3.585111 5.590008 9.355252 18.300042 45.856387 187.271961 8852.173878